nba为什么有水货虎扑(00年起前五顺位水货率分析，摆烂重建究竟靠不靠谱？)

Analysis of top 5 picks bust rate since year 2000 (OC) (self.nba)

对自2000年起，前五顺位水货率的分析

我曾经考虑过，前五的选秀权到底有多珍贵，而前五顺位的新秀成功的几率又是如何。于是我决定翻翻2000年起的旧账，看看每个顺位诞生出的球队核心球员（多赛季的MVP竞争者，可以作为大当家带队夺冠）、精英全明星（4 全明星阵容和多个NBA最佳阵容）、全明星、先发、水掉的几率都是多少。

状元签

球队核心级 - 勒布朗-詹姆斯，德怀特-霍华德，安东尼-戴维斯，卡尔-安东尼-唐斯（我假设他会成长到这一档）

精英级 - 布莱克-格里芬， 约翰-沃尔，姚明，凯里-欧文

全明星级 - 德里克-罗斯（把他放在这儿是因为他的伤病，只有三次全明星和一次NBA最佳阵容），安德鲁-维金斯（假设他能来到这档，可能到不了）

首发级 - 安德鲁-博古特，巴格纳尼（很少首发，但我会把他从水掉那挡拉出来），肯扬-马丁（一次全明星，但更接近一个合格先发球员的水平）

水货级 - 夸梅-布朗，格雷格-奥登，安东尼-本内特

所以状元签而论，结果是4/16的比率成为球队核心球员，4/16精英全明星，2/16全明星，3/16首发，3/16水货。

二号签

球队核心级 - 凯文-杜兰特

精英级 - 拉马库斯-阿尔德里奇（四次NBA最佳阵容）

全明星级 - 泰森-钱德勒（一次全明星，年度最佳防守球员），贾巴里-帕克（假设他会成长到这档）

首发级 - 奥拉迪波，埃梅卡-奥卡福，埃文-特纳，马文-威廉姆斯，迈克尔-基德-吉尔吉斯特，德安吉洛-拉塞尔（湖人球迷们别杀了我，不过他还是可能轻易升级到全明星级或精英级的）

水货级 - 斯特罗迈尔-斯威夫特，杰伊-威廉姆斯，米利西奇，迈克尔-比斯利，塔比特，德里克-威廉姆斯

二号签明显被诅咒了，只有1/16的球队核心球员，1/16精英全明星，2/16全明星，6/16先发，6/16水货。矮油。

三号签

球队核心级 - 卡梅罗-安东尼，恩比德（存疑），哈登

精英级 - 保罗-加索尔，德隆-威廉姆斯（2次NBA最佳阵容，持久了5年的20 10）

全明星级 - 艾尔-霍福德（本可以把他塞进精英级的，但并不觉得他巅峰期有辣么强），布拉德利-比尔（我觉着他在退役前会搞定几次全明星的），德里克-费沃斯（可能有争议，但我觉得如果他在东部，那他可能已经一次全明星在手了，并且我认为他有着全明星级别的天赋）

首发级 - OJ梅奥，本-戈登，埃内斯-坎特，奥托-波特（我觉得他未来能跳到全明星级，但目前 不太稳），麦克-邓利维，贾利尔-奥卡福（现在还不确定他会成长成什么样，但估计能成为坚实的首发）

水货级 - 达柳斯-迈尔斯，亚当-莫里森

三号签比起二号签可进步多啦，3/16的球队核心球员球员（把恩比德算上可能把这个比率拉高了，但我选择现在就给他加冕），2/16精英全明星，3/16全明星，6/16先发，2/16水货。

四号签

球队核心级 - 威斯布鲁克，克里斯-保罗

精英级 - 波什，波尔津吉斯（仍不确定他是否能成为特权球员，但我觉得他会入选五次以上的 全明星）

全明星级 - 迈克-康利（我不知道他今年算不算数，但他能力在全明星边缘已经很久了，如果他在东部大概也已经入选过了）

首发级 - 德鲁-古登，泰瑞克-埃文斯，特里斯坦-汤普森，科迪-泽勒，埃迪-库里（有过三五个 不错的赛季），迪昂-维特斯，阿隆-戈登（不确定他最后会落到哪档）

水货级 - 肖恩-利文斯顿（已经重生，但总体来说我还是觉得他水掉了），马库斯-费泽尔，泰鲁斯-托马斯

四号签相当弱势，但有保罗和威斯布鲁克也天赋满满。总体看，2/16的球队核心级球员，2/16精英全明星，1/16全明星，8/16先发，3水货。

五号签

球队核心级 - 德维恩-韦德

精英级 - 凯文-乐福，德马库斯-考辛斯（我觉得他能到达特权级，但需要更好地带动他的球队）

全明星级 -杰森-理查德森（从未入选过全明星，但我想他好几次都很接近，并在我看来足够接近）

首发级 - 德文-哈里斯，杰夫-格林，乔纳斯-瓦兰丘纳斯，里基-卢比奥，雷蒙德-费尔顿，麦克-米勒，阿莱克斯-莱恩

水货级 - 尼克罗兹-斯哥蒂什维利，谢尔登-威廉姆斯，托马斯-罗宾逊，马里奥-海佐尼亚（下定论太早了，但迹象不太妙），丹特-埃克萨姆（同样太早，同样不妙）

这是个更弱的签位，有着1/16的球队核心级球员，2/16精英全明星，1/16全明星，7/16先发，5/16水货。

我知道，对于2013年后这些签位的成色如何，现在还有大量不同推测，但我为了能得到一个总体印象，尽力去预测了。

总的来说，如果你有一个前五顺位签在手，那按过去结果而论，你有大约11/80或者14%的几率得到一名特权球员。我赶脚，这可是个相当不错的成材率。

你选中一位精英级球员的几率大概和球队核心级同样大，11/80或14%。所以你选中球队核心或精英级球员的几率大约是28%。

有9/80或11%的几率选中一位全明星球员，所以你至少选中一位全明星球员的几率是39%。

选中首发级别球员的几率是30/80或37.5%。

挑到水货的几率是19/80或23.75%。你选中首发级或水货级的几率大约是61%。比起选中全明星，你更有可能到手一个首发级或水货级。

状元签明显最珍贵，有50%的几率拿到精英全明星及以上级别的球员。但是在状元签后，你选中球队核心或精英级球员的几率就相当小了，并且有大得多的几率选中一个水货，或仅仅是平均级别的首发球员。不过每几年也会有一名球队核心球员或精英球员被选中，天赋会一代一代显现的。在那些小年里，水货率就很高了。

如果把状元签移出讨论，那用2-4号签选中全明星或以上级别球员的几率大约是34%。选中球队核心或精英球员的几率是18%。

太长不看版总结：在交易获得巨星时，选秀权的价值不一定像他们看上去的那样高，除非是状元签。状元签之外，即使把要求降低到全明星及以上，你也仅仅有34%的几率如愿，而精英级以上的几率是18%。考虑进去首轮加成，选到未来全明星的几率增加到了39%，精英级以上几率上升到了22%。你有61%的几率选中水货级和首发级，并且选中水货的几率比选中全明星高。

补充：老哥们似乎很在意我的球员分档，但我只是粗略归类下，从而看看选秀权的价值，嘿嘿嘿

再补充：去除掉最近两届选秀，几率变成了球队核心级= 9/70 (13%) , 精英全明星 = 10/70 (14%), 全明星 = 7/70 (10%), 首发 = 27/70 (38.5%), 水货 = 17/70 (24%)。快来看呀快来瞧，几率几乎不动摇！

I was thinking the other day about just how valuable are top 5 picks and what is the success rate of these picks. So I decided to look back from year 2000 and see at what rate each pick got a Franchise player (potential MVP candidate multiple years, can lead team to a championship as the best player), elite - all stars (4 all stars and a couple all-nba), All-Star, Starter, bust for each of the top 5 picks.

Pick 1 -

Franchise - Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns (I'm assuming he'll reach this level)

Elite All - Star - Blake Griffin, John Wall, Yao Ming, Kyrie Irving

All - Star - Derrick Rose (put him here because of his injury history, only has 3 all stars and one all nba), Andrew wiggins (assuming he'll reach this status, might not),

Starter - Andrew Bogut, Bargnanni (barely a starter but I'll leave him off the bust category), Kenyon Martin (one all-star but more of a starter quality player)

Bust - Kwame Brown, Greg Oden, Anthony Bennet

So the #1 pick rounds out with 4/16 franchise players, 4/16 elite - all star, 2/16 all-star, 3/16 starter, 3/16 bust

Pick 2

Franchise - Kevin Durant

Elite All- Star - Lamarcus Aldridge (4 time all nba)

All-Star - Tyson Chandler (1 all star, DPOY), Jabari Parker (assuming he will develop to this point)

Starter - Oladipo, Emeka Okafor, Evan Turner, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Deangelo Russell (Don't kill me lakers fans but he could easily move up into all-star or elite all-star)

Bust - Stromile Swift, Jay Williams, Darko Millicic, Michael Beasely, Hasheem Thabeet, Derrick Williams

2nd pick appears to be cursed, with 1/16 franchise, 1/16 elite all-star, 2/16 all-star, 6/16 starter, 6/16 bust. Yikes.

Pick 3

Franchise - Carmelo Anthony, Embiid(?), Harden

Elite All-Star - Pau Gasol, Deron Williams (2 time all-nba, 5 year stretch of 20-10)

All-Star - Al Horford (could've snuck him into elite but didn't think he had that high of a peak), Bradley Beal (I think he'll pick up a couple all-stars before hes done), Derrick Favors (might be controversial but I think he if he was on a team in the east he might have an all-star already, and I think he's an all star level talent)

Starter - O.J Mayo, Ben Gordon, Enes Kanter, Otto Porter ( I think he can make the jump to all-star but not confident as of now), Mike dunleavy, jahlil okafor (not sure what to make of him yet but think he can be a solid starter)

Bust - Darius Miles, Adam Morrison

3rd pick improves a lot from the 2nd pick, with 3/16 franchise (big if on embiid but ill give it to him for now), 2/16 elite all-stars, 3/16 all-stars, 6/16 starters, 2/16 busts.

Pick 4

Franchise - Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul

Elite All-Star - Chris Bosh, Porzingis (not sure he can be a franchise player yet but I think he'll reach 5 all-stars),

All-Star - Mike conley (Idk if he made it this year but he's been a bordeline all-star talent for long enough and would probably have one in the east)

Starter - Drew Gooden, Tyreke Evans, Tristan Thompson, Cody Zeller, Eddy Curry (had a 3-5 good seasons), Dion Waiters, Aaron Gordon (not sure where he'll end up)

Bust Shaun Livingston (has revived his career but overall I think its been a bust), Marcus Fizer, Tyrus Thomas,

4th is pretty weak but has a couple great talents in paul and westbrook. Overall 2/16 franchise, 2/16 elite all star, 1/16 all star, 8/16 starters, 3 busts.

Pick 5

Franchise - Dwyane Wade

Elite All-star - Kevin Love, Demarcus Cousins ( I think he can reach franchise but needs to improve his team more)

All-Star - Jason Richardson (never got an all star but I think he was close multiple times and I'd consider him close enough)

Starter - Devin Harris, Jeff Green, Jonas Valancunias, ricky rubio, raymond felton, Mike Miller, Alex Len

Bust - Nickoloz Tskitishvili, Shelden Williams, Thomas Robinson, Mario Hezonja ( too early but the signs aren't great), Dante Exum (too early but not showing great signs)

This is a weaker pick, with 1/16 franchise, 2/16 elite all-star, 1/16 all-star, 7/16 starter, 5/16 bust

Now I know there is a lot of speculation for most of these picks after 2013 about, but I did my best to see where they would project just to get a general idea.

Overall if you get a top 5 pick you have about an 11/80 or 14% chance to land a franchise player according to past results. That's actually quite a good success rate I'd reckon.

You have about the same chance of landing an elite all star, 11/80 or 14%. So you're chance of getting a franchise player or elite all-star is about 28%.

There is a 9/80 or 11% chance of getting an all star caliber player, so you're chance of getting at least an all-star player is 39%.

The chance of landing a starter caliber player is 30/80 or 37.5%.

The chance of landing a bust is 19/80 or 23.75%. You're chance of getting a starter or a bust is about 61%. You have a better chance of getting a starter or bust than you do of getting an all-star.

First pick is clearly the most valuable, with about a 50% chance of getting an elite all-star or above. After first pick however you have a pretty small chance of landing an elite all star or franchise player, and have a much better chance at landing a bust or just an average starter. Also in years where there was a franchise player or elite all star taken there was a generational talent available. In years without there was a high bust rate.

If you take out the first pick, you're chance of landing an all-star or above in picks 2-4 is about 34%. You're chance of landing a franchise or elite player is 18%.

TL;DR Draft picks aren't necessarily as valuable as they seem when trading for superstar players. Unless its the first pick overall, you have only about a 34% chance of landing a player that is even an allstar, and an 18% chance of landing an elite all-star. Including the first pick boosts your chance of landing an all-star to 39%, and a franchise or elite player to 22%. You have a 61% chance of getting a bust or a starter, with a higher chance of a bust than an all-star.

Edit : most of you guys seem concerned where I put people, while this was more of an exercise in seeing the value of draft picks lol

EDIT 2 Removing the last 2 drafts and the #'s bear out to franchise = 9/70 (13%) , elite all-star = 10/70 (14%), all-star = 7/70 (10%), starter = 27/70 (38.5), bust = 17/70 (24%). OH wow look the numbers barely changed from where they were!

bbirt 557 指標 1 月前

How're you gonna classify Embiid as a franchise player but not Boogie???

你怎么敢说恩比德是球队核心级球员

却不带上表妹？

Bismack BiyomboSon_of_Biyombo 23 指標 1 月前

PIC

老铁，没毛病

LakersDGgoesdeep 27 指標 1 月前

The amount of disrespect Boogie gets on here makes me so mad lmao

表妹在Reddit受到如此多不敬，气得我都合不拢腿了哈哈哈哈

JazzXsy 7 指標 1 月前

Yeah man, Cousins has won 30 games once! He's basically the greatest C of all time.

可不是么，考辛斯都怒赢过30场了！历史最佳中锋基本已在囊中。

566 指標 1 月前

SHAUN LIVINGSTON IS NOT A BUST

肖、恩、利、文、斯、顿、不、是、水、货

Netsaydee123 227 指標 1 月前

There should be a category between "Starter" and "Bust".

Shaun Livingston would go there.

“首发级”和“水货级”之间最好再分出来一档。

利文斯顿应该在那儿。

Sunsdirtydesert 195 指標 1 月前

"Solid rotation player"

“靠谱轮换球员级”。

Raptorsdollaraire 163 指標 1 月前

I mean, if you're maxing out at "solid rotation player" with the 4th overall pick, I think you can safely classify that as a bust. Anybody who knows what Livingston went through and what he's made of his career knows it's not an insult. But if we're talking about getting value out of draft positions, a bust is a bust.

我的意思是，如果你贵为四号秀，极限却只是“靠谱轮换球员级”，那你毫无疑问要被扫进水货档。只要你知道利文斯顿经历过什么，又是如何走过自己职业生涯的，那你就应该知道这绝不是侮辱。但如果我们在讨论从选秀签位中榨出的价值，那水货就是水货。

Kemba WalkerPattyMac811 25 指標 1 月前

I see your point, but if you're a productive NBA player in any capacity, you are not a bust. Relative to draft position is such an unfair way to judge a player's career. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a great example in my opinion. Every team would love to him on their squad. He's one of the best on-ball defenders in the entire league and a great rebounder and can chip in 8-16 points on any given night. Every team wants that player, but because he was drafted 2nd overall, he's a "bust" because he's not putting up 25-10 every night.

我懂你的意思了，但作为一个NBA球员，如果你能在任何层面上持续产出，那你就不是个水货。在评价一个球员的生涯时，一定要把表现和顺位挂钩十分不公平。在我看来迈克尔-基德-吉尔吉斯特就是个绝佳示例。每支球队都乐意把他收入队中。他是整个联盟中最好的持球防守者之一，也是很棒的篮板手，还能在随便哪个晚上插空取下8-16分。每支球队都想要他，但就因为他是2号秀，只要他每晚没拿到25分10板，那么他就是个“水货”。

NetsBigbadbuck 71 指標 1 月前

Yea he wasn't a bust but for a top 5 pick I think he'd end up being a bust. I really should have had a Bench player designation, but I think if you're a bench player as a top 5 pick you're a bust.

楼主：对他不是水货，但我想前五顺位而言，他最终还是要水了。我本应该为板凳球员单分一档的，但我认为如果你是前五顺位球员却只能坐板凳，那你就水掉了。

NetsBigbadbuck 20 指標 1 月前

Look at livingston careers stats. He's been a bust for most of his career. He turned his career around for 2-3 years after a short stint with the Nets.

楼主：瞅瞅利文斯顿的生涯数据。在他生涯的大多数时间里都很水。在篮网的短暂停留后，他最近两三年有所好转。

Andrew Wigginsgiannissim 182 指標 1 月前*

I'm sorry, you say KAT MIGHT be a franchise, but then you say embiid ALREADY IS a franchise and your only reason for being unsure whether he is one is injuries?

不好意思，你说唐斯可能成为球队核心级球员，但你又说恩比德已经是特权球员。而你唯一不确定唐斯是不是核心球员的理由是他的伤病？

Thundersenorpootin 102 指標 1 月前

This was the main thing that stood out. Embiid has played maybe 30 games and somehow is already considered franchise tier.

这是主要问题所在。恩比德也就大概打了30场比赛，但已经被当作特权级别了。

Vlade pacweeyummy1 47 指標 1 月前

Franchise player =/= MVP. Franchise player means you could build a championship team with that player as the centerpiece.

Yao Ming, Deron Williams, Bosh, Cousins were all franchise players at some point

核心级球员 =/= MVP。核心级球员意味着你能围绕这名球员打造一支冠军队伍。

姚明，德隆-威廉姆斯，波什，考辛斯在某种意义上都是核心级球员。

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